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Yesterday
- As expected the UK economy rebounded in May with month-on-month growth of +0.3% following a -0.4% contraction in April. Economic growth for the 3 months to May also stood at +0.3% with growth across all sectors, albeit modest. Economists have however warned that June’s figures will have to be particularly strong to avoid the second quarter of 2019 recording an overall contraction.
- UK Manufacturing Production m/m 1.4% (2.2% Exp)
- The early GDP forecast produced by NIESR suggests the UK economy will contract by -0.1% in the second quarter of 2019, however the initial outlook for Q3 is for growth of +0.2% meaning the UK would narrowly avoid a technical recession.
- The US Dollar was one of the weakest performers in FX space yesterday following comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Testifying on monetary policy before a House committee in Washington, Powell pointed to concerns around trade policy and a weaker global economy continuing to weigh on the US economic outlook. Whilst his comments didn’t directly point to a rate cut, his emphasis on uncertainty and below target inflation would appear to suggest a cut could be on the Fed’s agenda in their next meeting.
- The US Dollar declined sharply in FX markets following Powell’s comments, with even Sterling enjoying a strong afternoon against the greenback. Having been trading back down around 2-year lows of 1.2443 in the morning the Pound closed the day up +0.42% at 1.2510 against the Dollar.
- Pressed on whether he would step down if he was asked by the President, a defiant Powell said ‘the law gives me a four-year term and I fully intend to serve it’. President Trump has publicly bemoaned Powell and the Fed’s decision to increase rates during his Presidency.
- The Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% in their monetary policy meeting yesterday afternoon.
Overnight
- Minutes from the US Fed’s most recent meeting were released last night and it appears many of the board members are in favour of a near term cut in interest rates. Officials appear ready to cut rates in the next meeting if there is no material improvement in signs of slower global growth impacting the US economic outlook, weaker than expected inflation data and continuing uncertainty over trade tensions.
- Speaking yesterday evening US Fed Member Bullard said he thought a 25bp ‘insurance’ cut to rates would be appropriate given the risk of the economy slowing down more than anticipated.
- Japan Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.2% (-0.1% Exp)
- German Final CPI m/m 0.3% as expected
- French Final CPI m/m 0.2% as expected
Today
- US Inflation data is the headline economic print today at 1.30pm.
- US Fed Chair Powell will continue to testify before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington this afternoon.
MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution
| Currency Pair | Interbank Rate | % Change on Day |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1118 | +0.04 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2532 | +0.26 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1268 | +0.16 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6972 | +0.20 |
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Current at time of distribution
Current at time of distribution
| Time (GMT) | Region | Data Release | Forecast | Previous |
| 10.30 | GBP | BOE Financial Stability Report | ||
| 10.30 | GBP | BOE FPC Statement | ||
| 12.30 | EUR | ECB Meeting Minutes | ||
| 13.30 | USD | CPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 13.30 | USD | Unemployment Claims | 220K | 221K |
| 14.10 | AUD | RBA Assit Gov Debelle Speaks | ||
| 15.00 | USD | Fed Chair Powell Testifies |
https://www.godi.io/market-updates/newsletter-11th-july-2019/