Friday

• Eurozone data headlined Friday morning and it was pretty mixed overall
• The Eurozone ran a much greater than expected current account surplus in January, with Exports outweighing imports to the tune of €36.8Bn. A surplus of €17.3Bn had been forecast.
• Eurozone Manufacturing however dissapointed, with the PMI print dipping comfortably into contractionary territory in March with a reading of 47.6. That was someway below the 49.5 expected as factories saw activity contract at the fastest pace in close on 6 years.
• Eurozone Flash Services PMI 52.7 as expected.
• Sterling was one of the best performers in FX space on Friday, with the Pound rebounding from a torrid Wednesday and Thursday. Sterling strength was underpinned by EU Leaders’ agreement on the short delay to Article 50, provided however that UK MP’s vote in favour of Theresa May’s Deal.
• GBP/EUR closed the day up +1.41% at 1.1688.
• GBP/USD closed the day up +0.66% at 1.3188.
• Inflation in Canada increased +0.7% in February from a month earlier. That was slightly higher than the +0.6% forecast. On an annual basis Inflation stood at 1.5% which is well below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
• According to reports, ECB President Mario Draghi told EU Leaders that whilst the central bank sees protracted weakness and pervasive uncertainty in the Eurozone the risk of a recession is still quite low.

Overnight

• Unsurprisingly Brexit continued to dominate news headlines in the UK over the weekend, with PM Theresa May’s position coming under serious pressure amid reports a number of her Cabinet Ministers were plotting to oust her. There were suggestions that Tory MP’s could reluctantly back Mrs May’s third attempt to pass her Brexit deal but on the condition the PM resigns afterwards, allowing a new leader to tackle the next stage of the negotiations with the EU.
• Staying with Brexit and over the weekend organisers of the ‘Put it to The People’ campaign said more than one million people joined the march held in London.
• Following a near two-year investigation into alledged collusion between US President Donald Trump and Russia in the 2016 election campaign, Robert Mueller’s report concluded that no one in Trump’s campaign ‘conspired or coordinated with the Russian Government’. Whilst Trump has already said the report was a ‘complete and total exoneration’ of him, Mueller’s findings with regards to the obstruction of justice were inconclusive and Trump’s democratic opponents were quick to express disatisfaction with the outcome and have vowed to continue congressional probes into Trump’s business and personal dealings.
• German IFO Business Climate 99.6 (98.7 Exp)
• Japan All Industries Activity m/m -0.2% (-0.3% Exp)

Today

Very quiet on the economic data front.

MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS
Current at time of distribution

Currency Pair	Interbank Rate	% Change on Day
GBP/EUR	1.1647	-0.21
GBP/USD	1.3182	-0.17
EUR/USD	1.1316	+0.14
AUD/USD	0.7093	+0.21

 

Time (GMT)	Region	Data Release	Forecast	Previous
13.00	CNY	CB Leading Index m/m		1.6%
14.00	EUR	Belgian NBB Business Climate	-2.0	-1.7
21.15	AUD	RBA Member Ellis Speaks
21.45	NZD	Trade Balance	-200M	-914M

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